Screening + Strategies => Profit

郑拓李旭利老鼠仓案

2011-09-18T22:07:00.000-05:00

有关知情人士向财新记者透露，这一案件有可能成为中国证券市场上最大的基金经理老鼠仓案，可能将对业内造成震慑作用。

郑拓生于1968年，本科毕业于复旦大学，学习法律，后赴美国芝加哥大学商学院进修MBA。历任黑龙江省进出口公司业务代表、君安证券有限公司投资经理、广达投资管理公司投资经理、贝尔德投资银行分析师、海富通基金管理有限公司股票分析师、基金经理助理、基金经理。2007年加入交银施罗德基金管理有限公司。
　　交银期间，郑拓管理的交银稳健证券投资基金，取得晨星两年期和三年期五星级基金评价，并在《福布斯》发布的2009中国基金排行榜中，被评为十大最佳股票型基金之一。
　　2009年9月，郑拓正式离开交银施罗德基金公司，10月与原同事陈晓秋一起投资1000万元创立上海好望角投资公司，正式加盟私募大军.

Reference

郑拓李旭利老鼠仓案已移交司法涉案金额达千万

股市“黑嘴”汪建中

2011-09-18T21:43:00.003-05:00

在8月3日进行的一审判决中，有股市‘黑嘴’之称的原北京首放投资顾问有限公司(下称‘北京首放’)法定代表人汪建中被北京市第二中级人民法院以操纵证券市场罪判处有期徒刑7年，并处罚金约1.25亿元。
其实，从“地狱”到“天堂”，汪建中用了不过十年的时间。倒退十年，彼时，汪建中不过是股市初出茅庐之辈，当时股市“名嘴”的光环仍然罩在雷立军、赵笑云等人头上。

2001年8月1日，当时还名不见经传的汪建中与前妻赵玉玲共同出资100万元，注册成立北京市首放投资顾问有限公司，两人分别持股80%、20%。

此后，在不到两年的时间里，汪建中凭借在熊市中缔造的一个个“红色星期一”传奇而声名鹊起。“红色星期一”指的是，北京首放每周五在众多公告媒体上发布的《掘金报告》中所推荐的股票，在下周一总是位居沪深股市涨幅榜前列。

“北京首放荐股与赵笑云、雷立军不同，它不是光‘吹’一只股票，而是跟着市场节奏和热点进行推荐，有时一推就是一个板块，结果可能是该板块中的几只股票齐齐上涨。”一位熟悉汪建中的业内人士透露。

就是如此“精准”的推荐，让汪建中不但跻身千万富豪之列，还深受众多股民的追捧，并冠之以“名嘴”称号，可谓名利双收。突然暴富让这位从安徽贫苦农村走出来的男子一度寝食难安，但财富的召唤却让他难以自拔。

直至2008年，审计署在一次例行审计时意外发现并揪出了这只“硕鼠”。新金融记者多方调查，汪建中之所以东窗事发，原因在于审计署在对一家国有证券公司进行例行审计时发现，有几个账户反复出现巨额交易，且获利丰[13.72 -3.52%]厚；审计人员进一步审计后发现，这些账户都跟汪建中有关联。确认事实后，审计署将此情况上报国务院，国务院则批示证监会进行详细调查。

新金融记者查阅证监会2008年发布的行政处罚书后发现，从2007年1月1日至2008年5月29日期间，汪建中利用其实际控制的账户，用“抢帽子”的交易方式，55次买卖北京首放推荐的包括工商银行[4.07 -0.73% 股吧研报]、交大博通等在内的38只股票和权证，累计获利约1.26亿元。

Reference

“黑嘴”汪建中已上诉至北京高院拟提供新证据

股权分置

2011-08-06T00:41:00.001-05:00

“股改”全称是股权分置改革。中国资本市场建立之初，上市主要对象是国有企业，而国有企业的控股股东是国家或代表国家的各级国有资产管理部门。这样就出现了中国证券市场所特有的国有股和法人股(非流通股)，并且国有股和法人股不能像普通股一样上市流通。国有股、法人股、普通股“同股不同权，同股不同利”，被普遍认为是困扰股市发展的头号难题。此即“股权分置”问题。所谓“股改”，就是让国有股和法人股全部像普通股一样，参与市场流通，通过全流通实现同股同权，同股同利。

随着资本市场的发展，解决股权分置问题开始被提上日程。1998年下半年以及2001年，曾先后两次进行过国有股减持的探索性尝试，但由于效果不理想，很快停了下来。

在股改的过程中，流通股东持有的股权，不仅代表着上市公司的股权，而且还代表着是否同意非流通股东流通的权利。因此，非流通股东为获得流通权，就需要向流通股东支付对价。目前对价方案基本处于10送3这一平均水平，这也就意味着，流通股东所持有的股权会因上市公司的股改而增长，这就是物质上的丰收。

Reference

股改_百度百科

郭现杰《私募》

2011-08-05T23:07:00.007-05:00

私募基金=hedge fund in US?

私募(Private Placement)是相对于公募(Public offering)而言，私募是指向小规模数量Accredited Investor（通常35个以下）出售股票，此方式可以免除如在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的注册程序。投资者要签署一份投资书声明，购买目的是投资而不是为了再次出售。

Short squeeze in green bean futures. Can farmers sell their product directly in the Zhengzhou exchange?
赵丹阳??
Chinese government should monitor market more efficiently. Most transactions disclosed in the book are insiders trading.

市场的原则是双赢，交换的双方都觉得合适，所以是双赢，它不是零和游戏。其结果是财富的创造。其中的奥秘我在许多地方都说明过了。赌博则不然，它是零和游戏。一方赢，必有另一方输，而且输赢之和为零。它不能创造财富。[3]
当今中国的投机市场非常发达。依我看，股票市场，房地产市场，期货市场等都有过度投机的现象。在这些市场中，价格不是由正常的供需决定的，而被投机者的行为所决定，这时候投机市场就变成了赌博了。过度投机导致类似赌博的财富集中化的现象，非常难于纠正。因为这是群众参与的结果。群众的行为不改变，这一过程就不会终止。从价值观的角度看，要鼓励勤劳致富，反对一夜致富的机会主义。[3]

第三十三章纵使相逢亦不识

2005年秋季中国政府将推出《上市公司股权分置改革管理办法》。
“2002年6月管理层强行推动国有股减持，造成股市暴跌，以至于在9月不得已叫停。后来想了很多种方式，可是市场都不答应，最后没有办法，就想出了以送股或派现的方式补偿流通股股东，以换取非流通股到市场上流通。”
这样不好吗，流通股股东无偿得到了股票或现金，自己账户上的金钱增加了，而非流通股的股东们手中的股票在锁定期满后也可以到市场上变现了。
如果在一个预期明确的时间，比如一年或者两年，监管层要求非流通股给流通股派现或者送股，而又要求非流通股在锁定期限内不流通，那么股市会怎样？-> 当然大涨了！
“在非流通股即大非和小非锁定期满呢？” -> “肯定大跌。我私下测算过，如果现存的大非和小非锁定期满，全部减持的话，相当于再造两个A股市场。资金就这么多，却扩容了两倍多，市场怎么不大跌？”
但我们在股权分置改革办法出台前进入股市，在大非小非解禁后，迅速减仓，这样就可以无风险地赚钱了！”

林康命太好了点吧，谁都无条件帮他，美女不断，小碗儿和他的爱情也比较假，世上怎会有如此爱情？[1]

Reference

Cloud computing center in China --- Just waste taxpayers' money

2011-06-25T00:56:00.011-05:00

中国几个大城市正全力发展云计算中心，希望能够抢夺广大互联网云端商机。但中国的云计算中心，是否真能如愿吸引外资，将他们的资料储存在中国的云端呢？[1]

上海声称要建立“亚太云计算中心”

上海云海计画估计整体产业链采购规模也有2,000亿人民币

北京则想要成为“亚洲最大超云服务器生产基地”。

北京翔云计划预定投资500亿人民币，预计带动终端设备采购商机约达2,000亿人民币

重庆市在今年3月宣布，将在两江新区约10平方公里的区域内，兴建一个有创新监管机制支撑，并由中国国家相关部委支持的“国际离岸云计算数据特别管理区”。重庆市长黄奇帆说，将在2到3年完成布局，将形成3到10朵云，预计衍生产值将达6000亿美元。根据《南方周末》报导，在重庆建设的云计算中心，将是个“云特区”，在严格安检的围墙之内，是个不需经过防火长城，不跟中国网络相接，不与中国境内法人机构或个人发生经济关系，是通过专用光纤直达国际互联网的特别管理区。
广州很早就公布了自己的“天云”计划
宁波也搞了个星云，还是联合美籍华人人一起搞的。实乃找到云的祖宗。未来宁波电信将投资40亿元，投放10万台服务器，建设以“云计算”为基础的统一物联网平台。
陕西的航天云
杭州的西湖云
武汉的云计算联盟
无锡的感知云
廊坊的IBM润泽云
深圳的IBM金蝶云。

中国只要还有GFW和网警，还没有立法保护网络数据私密，就永远不可能吸引国外用户使用它的云计算中心，这种重复投资建设，不过是浪费钱。[1,4] 最大的受益者应该房地产公司和国家电网公司[5].However, government spending will make cloud computing vendor rich.

Load balancer: F5, radware
Server/Database: HP, IBM/Informix,Oracle/Sun

“投资商根本摸不透‘云计算’具体是什么，也抓不住。”华睿投资董事康伟说，目前国内云计算市场处于概念阶段，并无清晰盈利模式，风投对本土云计算项目并无实质性投入。而这也造成相关企业蜂拥争夺国家政策基金，或是通过股票增发获取资本支持。[2]

经过长达7个月等待，华胜天成(600410.SH)总裁王维航悬着的心终于放下了。因为，华胜天成非公开发行A股股票的申请几日前通过证监会审核。这意味着它不仅可获得5亿多元融资，也标志着其“云计算”战略获得资本市场认可。

募投项目中投入资金最大的项目云计算服务平台具体建设内容包括数据中心、服务中心管理软件系统开发、IT服务总控中心及软件研发中心，涵盖了云计算IaaS，PaaS 和SaaS的三个主要领域，符合国内外云计算蓬勃发展的行业趋势，同时将受益于国家发展战略性新兴产业扶持政策。[3]

王维航透露，通过这一概念尝试发行股票募资的还有浪潮信息(000977.SZ)、滨海能源(000695.SZ)、中电广通(600764.SH)等，目前它们还没获批。

Reference

Wall Street never sleeps movie

2011-04-24T23:35:00.002-05:00

Stayed in hotel to watch DVD "Wall Street: Money never sleeps" filmed by Oliver Stone.

Money is a bitch. She never sleeps.

Reference

Wall Street: Money never sleeps wiki

FDA chemist Chen Yi Liang charged for insider trading

2011-04-03T00:38:00.000-06:00

The Securities and Exchange Commission March 29 charged a U.S. Food andDrug Administration (FDA) chemist with insider trading on confidentialinformation about upcoming announcements of FDA drug approvaldecisions, generating more than $3.6 million in illicit profits andavoided losses.

Buffett: Japan a ‘buying opportunity,’ will recover

2011-03-27T13:58:00.001-06:00

MSNBC 03/21/11: Buffett: Japan a ‘buying opportunity,’ will recover
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett believes Japan's devastatingearthquake is the kind of extraordinary event that creates a buyingopportunity for shares in Japanese companies.

"Frequently, something out of the blue like this, an extraordinaryevent, really creates a buying opportunity. I have seen that happen inthe United States, I have seen that happen around the world. I don'tthink Japan will be an exception," said the 80-year-old investor,dubbed the "Sage of Omaha" for his successful long-term investmentstrategy.

Sales of luxe doomsday bunkers up 1,000%

2011-03-27T13:04:00.002-06:00

CNN money report: Sales of luxe doomsday bunkers up 1,000%
U.S. companies selling doomsday bunkers are seeing sales skyrocket anywhere from 20% to 1,000%.

Northwest Shelter Systems, which offers shelters ranging in price from$200,000 to $20 million, has seen sales surge 70% since the uprisingsin the Middle East, with the Japanese earthquake only spurring furtherinterest. In hard numbers, that's 12 shelters already booked when thecompany normally sells four shelters per year. "Sales have gone through the roof, to the point where we are havingtrouble keeping up," said Northwest Shelter Systems owner KevinThompson.
UndergroundBombShelter.com, which sells portable shelters, bombshelters and underground bunkers, has seen inquiries soar 400% sincethe Japanese earthquake. So far sales of its $9,500 nuclear biologicalchemical shelter tents are at an all-time high -- with four sold inCalifornia last week, compared to about one a month normally.
Vivos, a company that sells rooms in 200-person doomsday bunkers, hasreceived thousands of applications since the massive earthquake inJapan, with reservations spiking nearly 1,000% last week. And peopleare backing their fear with cash: A reservation requires a minimumdeposit of $5,000.

The last time people flocked to purchase bunkers in such droves wasright before the Y2K scare, according to Stephen O'Leary, an associateprofessor at University of Southern California and an expert onapocalyptic thinking.

Oil reserves in Libya

2011-03-20T13:27:00.008-06:00

Oil reserves in Libya are the largest in Africa and the ninth largest in the world with 41.5 billion barrels (6.60×10⁹ m³) as of 2007. Oil production was 1.8 million barrels per day (290×10³ m³/d)as of 2006, giving Libya 63 years of reserves at current productionrates if no new reserves were to be found. Libya is considered a highlyattractive oil area due to its low cost of oil production (as low as $1per barrel at some fields), and proximity to European markets. Libya would like to increase production from 1.8 Mbbl/d (290×10³ m³/d) in 2006 to 3 Mbbl/d (480×10³ m³/d)by 2010–13 but with existing oil fields undergoing a 7–8% decline rate,Libya's challenge is maintaining production at mature fields, whilefinding and developing new oil fields. Most of Libya remains unexploredas a result of past sanctions and disagreements with foreign oilcompanies.

Reference

Oil Reserves in Libya wiki

The economic impact of Japanese earthquake and tsunami

2011-03-13T22:52:00.003-06:00

Japanese Yen

日元短期内会升值，因为救灾需要大量的资金，保险公司理赔也需要大量的日元现金，所以短期内，国际市场上的一些资金会流向日本，换成日元，投入到救灾活动中。这股资金在给日本救灾以有力支持的同时，也可以为一直死气沉沉的日本经济带来一些活力和变数。
长远来看，日元将就此摆脱升值压力，进入贬值周期。

Reference

3月3日外交部发言人姜瑜"不要拿法律当挡箭牌"

2011-03-06T14:48:00.001-06:00

2011年3月3日外交部发言人姜瑜举行例行记者会
问：昨天中国警方约见外国驻京记者，强调外国记者在中国各地采访前需征得被采访人和单位同意。这是否意味着537号令已失效？

答：有关部门与一些记者进行沟通，目的是为了帮助大家更好地在中国工作。你提到有关部门找你们，我想可能是因为一些外国记者近日未经许可前往北京市繁华商业区采访引发混乱。希望你们能以正确态度对待。

我们已经反复重申，537号令仍是外国记者在华采访的指导性法令。对于外国记者在华进行正当采访，中方有关部门会依法保护记者的合法权益，并提供便利和协助。以前我们是这样做的，现在是这样，将来还会继续这么做。

　问：我愿意遵守规定，也递交了采访申请，但警方的解释我不理解，你是否认为他们违反了537号令？

答：既然你这么执着，我愿意介绍一下了解到的情况。近日一些外国记者未经许可就前往北京市繁华商业区聚集蹲守拍摄，而且不听从现场管理人员的劝阻，长时间占道影响通行，严重扰乱了该区域正常秩序，也引起周围商家和行人强烈不满。执勤民警依法进行了疏导，没有听从民警劝导的记者被带离现场进一步谈话。我认为多数记者是去抢新闻的，但你们的确违反了规定，也确实影响了社会秩序。其中绝大多数记者都积极与警方配合，在警方疏导后就散离了，只有极个别记者与警方发生了冲突。

我想指出，如果有人不是为了单纯去报道新闻，而是想当什么“英雄记者”，以身试法，制造新闻，这不仅违背了职业道德，而且事情的性质也就发生了变化。

追问：你能明确告诉我们违反了中国哪项法律的哪个条款吗？

违反了去那个地方采访需申请的有关规定。不要拿法律当挡箭牌。问题的实质是有人唯恐天下不乱，想在中国闹事。对于抱有这种动机的人，我想什么法律也保护不了他。希望大家能够明智地认识这个问题。如果你们是真正的记者，就应按照记者的职业准则行事，在中国要遵守中国的法律法规。从前两次情况看，那些去蹲守的记者也没有等到他们想等的新闻。如果这两天还有人煽动、鼓动你们再去什么地方非法聚集，我建议你们及时报警，一是为了维护北京的治安，二是为了维护你们自身的安全和权益。

同时我想强调，中国的改革开放和稳定发展大局已经说明中国选择的发展道路是正确的。求稳定、谋发展、促和谐是全体中国人民的共同意愿。我们会继续坚定不移地走符合中国国情的发展道路，坚定不移地维护最广大人民的根本利益。任何破坏中国社会稳定的企图都是不可能得逞的。中国保持稳定和发展符合中国的利益，也符合世界的利益。

问：我们尊重中方的规定，但对这一规定如何实施感到困惑。以前允许的现在却行不通。按我们先前的理解，很可能无意中就违反了中国的法律法规。你能否解释一下？

答：你在中国工作了多年，相信你对中国改革开放这些年来的发展情况以及外国记者采访环境不断改善有切身体会。随着改革开放不断深入，外国记者在华采访环境日益宽松。但良好的采访环境需通过相互尊重、信任、理解、合作来维护。我觉得信任越多，合作越好，采访就会越顺畅、越宽松。

Shame of Ministry of Foreign Affairs! Shame of Chinese government! China might not be a safe place for investment anymore.

China's jasmine revolution

2011-02-27T13:52:00.003-06:00

UK Guardian Feb 27 reports

Few expected Chinese citizens to answer the "jasmine revolution"appeal, which urged them to express their desire for reform by"strolling" past a McDonald's on Wangfujing shopping street and spotsin 22 other mainland cities.
Analysts agree that China is unlikely to face an uprising similar tothe ones in the Middle East and North Africa. "They [the Chinesegovernment] are delivering economic growth. Egypt did not have aleadership succession system; China does at a certain level. The armyis not independent; it is under the party's lead. China does not haveal-Jazeera [television]. It's hard to see what the commonalities are,"said Nicholas Bequelin, Asia researcher for Human Rights Watch.
In a rare webchat, the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, who is seen asthe government's sympathetic face for ordinary citizens, also stressedthat controlling inflation was a priority.
"Rapid price rises have affected the public and even social stability," he said.
Authorities are particularly anxious because China's annual political meetings begin in Beijing on Thursday.
"Chinese citizens do not even know what a citizen is – they know onlythat they are like lambs, the Chinese leaders are their parents, thatthey have enough to eat, to drink; why they should be against [thegovernment]?" he said.

“皮革奶”

2011-02-20T22:49:00.001-06:00

《南方日报》2011-02-18 《“皮革奶”的生产者已泯灭了人性》: 皮革下脚料或是动物的皮毛、脏器竟然可以与喝的奶粉密切关联在一起，真亏那些丧尽天良的人想得出来。残酷的生活现实是，他们不仅这样想了，而且这样干了。他们把如此加工生成的所谓“皮革水解蛋白”，掺入牛奶或奶粉中以提高蛋白质的含量。尤为残酷的是，此番千夫所指，并非它初次登台来了个恐怖亮相，而是它的 “死灰复燃”。2005年，山东奸商就已经“实践”过；2009年，浙江金华市晨园乳业又被查出顶风作案.

2011年02月18日, "农业部否认“皮革奶”死灰复燃": 昨日下午，一则“内地‘皮革奶粉’死灰复燃长期食用可致癌”的新闻( 来源:香港商报苏尚)迅速登上各大商业门户网站的首页，引起了网友们的广泛关注。2010年，农业部门尚未发现含有该物质的生鲜乳制品，媒体报道的“皮革奶”死灰复燃是失实报道。

Which one is believable? 央视评不详报道引皮革奶传闻:乳业信任危机未除

U. S. Prosperity today built on Indians losing their land?

2011-02-06T02:06:00.002-06:00

I wanted to figure out if U. S. prosperity today is built upon the fact that Indians lost their land when I found this book in the library. My real point is to verify if the GDP in China is built on the fact that farmers lost their land. Will this kind of robbery behavior cause revolution or collapse? Something look similar:

Colonial officials were typically paid very small salaries, and were given insufficient resources to cover their expenses. Many accordingly resorted to land speculation for a n income.
Until 1763, when private land purchasing was outlawed, the colonial government was in principle just one purchaser among many.
Much land appears to have been purchased by settlers deliberately exploiting the collective action problem, by offering to pay individual Indians for their signatures on deeds to land the settlers knew was owned by many people other than the sellers.

燕京啤酒 000729

2011-01-30T23:09:00.000-06:00

Will 燕京啤酒 became BUD in China? Qingtao beer raise price also?

煤、电、汽油、柴油等能源价格上升导致运输成本提高，此外作为啤酒原料的大米价格上涨也让经营成本增加。
大麦是由供需决定的，全球的总需求量几乎不增长，欧美发达地区甚至是倒退的，所以现在提价，未来能享受成本下降的好处。
在2010年10月，燕京啤酒成功发行了11.3亿元可转债，转股价格为21.86元/股。今年4月15日，燕京转债将进入转股期，业内人士判断，公司有较强释放业绩的动机。

Reference

燕京啤酒今日提价最大幅度或达18%

贵州茅台(600519)

2011-01-23T23:32:00.039-06:00

25年前，一瓶茅台酒也就卖13元，与同样是名酒的五粮液、汾酒、郎酒的价格差距不过4元。25年过去了，当年的一瓶茅台酒已经上升到了1万元以上，飙涨了800倍。这个价格与同一年份的其他名酒的价格差距，也拉大到了7000元到9000元。[1]

Franchise business?
Jim Rogers missed this stock in his book A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market

美国市场上，1000ml装53°茅台售价折合人民币1500元左右，仅为国内价格的一半左右。受此影响，不少国人选择在国外购买茅台返乡过年。

据贵州粮油食品进出口公司的工作人员介绍，该公司作为茅台厂家法定的出口贸易公司，主要针对俄罗斯、巴西等国家出口茅台酒，更多的茅台酒出口则由茅台厂家自己的进出口公司来做。该工作人员称，茅台酒在出口的时候价格就比在国内出厂价便宜，而且还可享受出口退税等补贴政策，因此即便到岸缴纳了所在国的关税之后，售价也要优于国内很多。以美国为例，茅台酒（375ml）去年的售价还不到300元人民币，当前的价格也不过400元人民币左右，远低于国内价格水平。

据业内人士透露，出口茅台主要分为欧美及中东地区两种规格，欧美产品主要表现为瓶内背标为中、英文结合，中东地区主要出口韩国规格，瓶内背标为中文加韩文，其他国家则按照欧美标准发货。出口茅台以飞天茅台为主，与国内产品的主要区别是没有酒杯赠品，其酒质与国内销售的五星茅台完全相同。

茅台集团2009年年报显示，当年茅台酒的国外营业收入为2.93亿元左右，按照当前1000ml1500元的境外销售价格粗略计算，茅台酒在国外的销售量约200吨左右。
根据海关的有关规定，每人仅限携带两瓶酒水类产品回国。

买茅台酒绝对比买贵州茅台的股票要明智。虽然贵州茅台是沪深股市中少有的几只超过百元的高价股之一，也因为投资回报率较高而为股民津津乐道，但是，如果与直接购买茅台酒的投资回报率相比，还是很有差距的。[3]

三年前的茅台到现在价格至少翻了四倍，更不要说十几二十年前的茅台，现在翻了上千倍。不少“囤”茅台酒的藏家们都坚信：买茅台酒绝对比买贵州茅台的股票要明智。
深圳沃尔玛山姆会员店被曝出现约1500瓶53°茅台，之前，该店称53°茅台已经断货一个多月。此事曝出后，沃尔玛被指责有意囤货。[2]

Reference

陈志武: 让百姓分享经济增长带来的财富效应

2011-01-16T20:14:00.000-06:00

过去十多年，不仅没改变投资依赖型、出口导向型增长方式，反而是更加强化对投资和出口的依赖，但是，经济照样能快速增长。为什么呢？大的原因有三：

1998年全面推动住房市场化改革，并同时为家庭和个人推出住房按揭贷款，那些改革举措加上正在发生的城镇化进程，给房地产市场和相关行业带来一次巨大的发展机会，使包括餐饮业、家具装潢业、零售业、金融业都能上升到全新高度。
从2001年加入WTO到2008年金融危机，甚至是到2010年，9年时间里，整个中国经济和企业，都享受到了WTO红利，让中国的劳动力和制造业优势充分地发挥出来，使出口每年大幅增长。
虽然中国出口过去三十年在一些国家碰到不同程度的贸易障碍，但总体上，国际秩序对中国依赖外贸带动增长的模式非常友好，冷战之后几乎所有国家对中国商品几乎是无保留的开放，没有太多从战略安全、贸易保护角度排斥中国产品，世界市场没有被划成两大或几大阵营。

但是，到今天，上面三大因素都发生了根本性变化。经济增长模式转型的压力推到全新高度，未来经济增长的动力只能来自国内需求，特别是民间消费需求，别无旁代。

核心原因必然在于基础制度安排，中国民间消费增长艰难跟国有制、跟政府在经济中的角色以及不受制约的征税权有关。根据我的研究，一个国家国有经济的比重越高，那么在同样GDP增长速度下，其民间消费的增长速度就越慢。道理很简单，当主要财产是国有、土地都是国有或者公有的社会，企业产权再升值、国有企业利润再多、土地再升值，老百姓都无法感受、享受到这些资产收益，得不到财富效应，因为这些资产收入都由政府独享。这些年的经济增长让土地升值很多，国企利润和资产都升值很多，但这些对老百姓的收入和财富没有产生影响，所以，老百姓能感受到的经济增长速度很有限。为什么中国必须要保8、保9，才能保持起码的稳定，是因为老百姓能够感受到的GD P增速只有官方公布的G D P增长的一半左右，他们分享不到经济增长带来的财富效应。

Reference

陈志武: 让百姓分享经济增长带来的财富效应

假按揭

2010-12-11T21:17:00.002-06:00

读了宋押司的《地产战争》, 才知道还有假按揭.

假按揭就像颗毒瘤，每过几年就要周期性地发作。 [1]

“无利不起早”，开发商热衷于假按揭，无非是看中个人房贷利率比开发商的商业贷款低得多，条件也更宽松，甚至还可以借此推高房价。See my post on 03/11/2008 Why house in China is so expensive?
假按揭若没有银行内部人员、律师、开发商的配合，一般是很难办成的。在很多时候，银行与开发商是假按揭利益共同体，表面上银行损失了一些利率，实际上，开发商将按揭业务都放在它那里，业务量便大增，况且，假按揭也是要支付利率的。由此，银监会某些人士表态“一旦发现有此类现象，银监会将责令银行进行调查”是靠不住的，这几轮的假按揭风潮告诉我们，别指望那些做内鬼的银行能自查自纠。

Reference

假按揭“死灰复燃” 打击假按揭须揪内鬼

章立凡:清末以来中国三次“国进民退”的历史教训

2010-12-04T05:39:00.010-06:00

清末以来，中国发生过三场“国进民退”，第一场引爆了辛亥革命，第二场导致了国民党政权的垮台，第三场将国民经济拖到了崩溃边缘。如今山西省对煤矿的整合重组虽然结束了，但又一场关于“国进民退”的争论却远未止歇。事实上，从国际金融危机爆发以来，中央各项刺激经济政策和投资，主要作用于国有企业，新一轮“国进民退”大有潮涌之势，对民营经济的生存环境及未来信心是很大的打击.

民富才能国强，独大未必为公。在国民经济格局中，统筹兼顾，全面协调国企与民企的发展关系，逐步推行国有企业的民营化，重点扶持民营企业的发展，都是必要的，片面扶植或压抑其中一方，都会影响经济发展的可持续性。

清末以来，中国历史上先后发生过三场“国进民退”，结果第一场引爆了辛亥革命，第二场导致了国民党政权的垮台，第三场将国民经济拖到了崩溃边缘。历史已经证明：“国进民退”没有可持续性，“国民共进”才是人间正道。

Reference

章立凡:清末以来中国三次“国进民退”的历史教训

Enery shortage and Defense stock

2010-10-29T00:22:00.005-05:00

Almost all the oil in the world is produced in economically underdeveloped and hence unstable countries.

Civil unrest or a coup or anything that jeopardizes oil production in even one country is likely to have an impact that resounds throughout the oil-consuming world.

The only edge the U. S. possesses in the competition for oil is its overwhelming defense superiority. [1]

In 1986 China exported 500k barrels of oil/day. In 2002, China imported 1,300k barrels of oil/day.

Oil sales are probably the most important of all internationally based transactions, and the willingness of oil exporters to price oil in terms of dollars is a big reason that dollar remains the world's reserve currency. The chief reason oil exporters have remained so loyal to the dollar is their undoubted awareness of our military resources--the silently effective big stick. And it's not inconceivable that oil producers might prefer to free themselves from pricing their treasured resources in dollars. [1]

Leeb predicted in 2004 [1]: Iran stop using US$ in its crude oil transactions from 04/30/08

History will repeat itself

Between 1977 and 1980, as inflation rose and P/E for the stock market as a whole were failing, defense expenditures were rising as a percentage of GDP, and P/E for defense companies rose, in some cases sharply.

Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
CACI
General Dynamics
Lockheed Martin
BA

Reference

Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, "The oil factor"

Stephen Leeb

2010-10-12T23:15:00.004-05:00

For most of the 1990s, whenever oil prices rose above $20 a barrel, they came down. But starting 1999, prices remained uptrended as the world reached the point where it was consuming the all of the oil that non-OPEC producers could provide. [1]

Stephen Leeb shares the same arguments that stock price and commodity(esp. oil) have the negative correlation. Furthermore he talks timing.

Abrupt and steep rises in oil prices are hard for the economy to absorb and hence bad for stocks.
Failing oil prices, or even prices that rise but do so fairly gradually, permit the economy and stocks to flourish.[1]

Reference

Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis

Intel wants to buy into smart phone chip market

2010-08-26T23:40:00.000-05:00

I heard the deal from an old friend of mine. Intel Said to Be Near Deal for Infineon Wireless Unit

As I predicted in 2007, laptop, smart phone and GPS will merge into one industry.

Revenue of China state-owned enterprise and GDP

2010-08-19T23:25:00.008-05:00

8月19日，国资委发布今年1-7月中央企业经营状况，数据显示，虽然央企累计实现营业收入91,458.1亿元，同比增长42.4%，但增幅比1-6月放缓1.9个百分点.

中央企业名录
垄断国企的职工占全国职工的8%，但其工资总额占全国的65%。[1]

China 2010 1-2Q GDP=172,839.8亿元

91,458.1/(172,839.8*7/6)=45.35%. Is Chinese economy is market economy?
Reference

胡星斗, "垄断国企十宗罪"

Gordon Chang(章家墩) and his book "The coming collapse of China"

2010-08-18T22:50:00.002-05:00

Gordon Chang predicted his book "The coming collapse of China" in 2002 that China would collapse within 10 years, i.e. 2012. Some guys like Jim Rogers strong disagree with him. Anyway let us Gordon's reasoning.

Why farmer are second-class citizen in China?

2010-06-26T20:12:00.000-05:00

建国后不久,我们便按照前苏联的模式,通过种种政策规范将城乡分开,优先发展城市.刚刚推翻了三座大山的农民就这样沦为了二等公民.

中华人民共和国户口登记条例（1958年1月9日全国人民代表大会常务委员会通过）从法律上确立了"城是城,乡是乡"的户籍制度,以维护城乡分明的二元社会结构.

Reference

且东,<<大危机>>

classification of company

2010-06-26T19:54:00.000-05:00

四流企业卖苦力
三流企业卖产品
二流企业卖服务/品牌
一流企业卖专利
超级企业卖标准

Reference

且东,<<大危机>>

Rollover will always lose money when futures contract is in backwardation

2010-06-18T08:58:00.001-05:00

I found S&P 500 emini futures contract had been in backwardation since my selled call options was assigned in mid of May. Does it mean S&P 500 index will go down? June contract alway was about 4 points higher than Sep contract since then. Rollover with -4.75 points right before Jun contract expired at 8:30 am CDT this morning.

Two more cards in the hands of Chinese government

2010-06-10T00:34:00.001-05:00

土地私有化，将土地山林全部分给农民
国有公司私有化，将国有公司股份全部平均分配给所有国民

当然，这两张牌政府轻易是不会出的。但我相信，但政府走投无路时，他们一定会打出这两张牌的。两张牌一出，中国内需立即搞活。所以，过早看空中国经济并不明智。这是我帖子的主要意思。当年改革开放，政府也是在经济走投无路时，不得不进行的。

Reference

天涯社区,你知道的太少了中国经济还有两张“王牌”没有出

Money market instruments with short-term maturities

2010-05-23T11:27:00.007-05:00

The money market is a collection of markets consisting of brokers and dealer who trade in billion of dollars of short-term securities:

Treasury bills are sold by the U. S. Treasury to finance some of the federal government's expenditures. Their maturities are for 4,13, and 26 weeks.
Bankers' acceptances are promissory notes that are used mainly tofinance international trade transactions. Their maturities are 9 monthsor less.
Commercial paper is issued by the most creditworthy companies as a source of short-term credit and is in essence an unsecured promissory note. Maturities are 270 days or less.

Bill Gross turn short-term commercial paper yields into "near-cash" substitutes with returns 50 to 100 basis higher.
FED bought commercial paper on 10/07/2008

Negotiable certificates of deposit are deposits of $100k or more deposited in commercial banks at a specific rate of interest. These can be bought and sold in the open market.
Repurchase agreements are contract that involve the sale of money market securities withe the simultaneous agreement to buy the securities back at an agreed on price in the future. (move forward)
Money market mutual fund

Reference

Esme Faerber, "All about bonds, bond mutual funds and bond ETFs" 3rd Ed

茅于轼

2010-05-09T12:15:00.003-05:00

1993年从中国社科院退休，与其他四位经济学家共同创办北京天则经济研究所，担任所长。

没有特权就是人权所以人权用不着去刻意追求，只要取消了特权，人权便自然到来。所以说天赋人权，因为人权是人人都可以拥有而不会发生彼此冲突的权利；特权则是只能少数人拥有，否则就会引起冲突的权利。
剥削理论、仇恨富人、造反有理是当前的三大危险，穷人“造反”造不出一个好社会

Reference

茅于轼 wiki

Startup's 5 stages to raise money

2010-05-03T22:38:00.002-05:00

Per former CEO of Citi's Asian-Pacific region, Paul Xia

Its own money
Find strategic Partner and form a winning team
Find a VC
Find a loan from a conventional bank
Issue bond in the money market

刘植荣《世界工资研究》

2010-05-03T22:23:00.001-05:00

中国的最低年收入不到世界平均水平的15%，全球排名159位，最低工资占国内生产总值GDP的比例同样为159位，甚至低于32个非洲国家。

中国最低工资是人均GDP的25%，世界平均为58%;中国最低工资是平均工资的21%，世界平均为50%;中国公务员工资是最低工资的6倍，世界平均是2倍;中国行业工资差高达3000%，世界平均则是70%。他认为，中国工资存在的主要问题是没有工资制度，特别是国家公务员工资，每次都没有经过人民的同意便悄悄涨薪。
著名经济学家茅于轼介绍说，“工资不是自己来定的，《公司法》是有规定的。政府雇员的工资都不应当是自己定的，而是要通过人民代表来定，国外都是这种情况。在中国很特别，现在对政府官员的工资，还有国有企业高管的工资都有很大的质疑，大家都看到了这确实是一个问题，政府官员工资和国企高管的工资和国外比起来相当高。”
尽管中国工资水平如此之低，但是税负并不低。中国财政收入在20年里增长了30倍，年均增长率19.5%，远远高于GDP的增速。
虽然如此，政府并没有将这些财政收入妥善运用于国民相关的教育以及医疗事务上，据中新网报导，中国教育支出占GDP比例为2.6%，只有国际平均水平的一半;医疗卫生支出只有将近 4%，美国、德国、英国、法国全都高于15%。世界卫生组织的报告显示，中国的医疗公平性排名为全球倒数第四。

蔡崇信 1688 CFO

2010-05-03T01:36:00.001-05:00

蔡崇信在阿里巴巴刚成立时加入，就任CFO。他的到来，才使公司真正规范化运作。蔡崇信放下七十万美元年薪的德国投资公司工作，千里迢迢来投奔马云，每月只拿五百块人民币的薪水，帮马云去注册公司。在湖畔花园炎热的夏夜，蔡崇信挥着汗水对着白板和第一批员工讲股份讲权益，将十八份个完全符合国际惯例的英文合同，叫马云和十八罗汉签字画押。如果没有蔡崇信这样的人加入，阿里巴巴会是一个家族企业，会一直以“感情”、“理想”和“义气”去维持团队。蔡崇信到来以后，将阿里巴巴以做成了公司，并以正式合同的形式，将最初十八罗汉团队的利益绑到了一起。这其实是至关重要的一步，阿里巴巴因此而得以将最初的创业激情和团队文化一直维系八年之久.

Reference

蔡崇信百度百科

陈志武:财政收入快速增长人大应多关注税收

2010-05-02T15:44:00.003-05:00

从总理的政府工作报告中，我们了解到，中国2009年GDP为33.5万亿元，增长8.7%；预算内财政税收6.85万亿元，增长11.7%。相比之下，城镇居民的人均可支配收入1.717万元，比2008年增加9.8%，而农民人均纯收入为5153元，新增8.3%。政府预算内财政收入还不包括1.5万亿元土地出让收入，也更不包括十几万国企去年的利润和国有资产变现的所得。如果再加上那1.5万亿元土地出让金，但不算进国企利润和其他国有资产的变现收入，那么，8.35万亿元的政府收入相当于4.83亿城镇居民去年的收入，16.2亿农民一年的纯收入。

2008年，政府财政收入相当于3.9亿城镇居民同年的收入，12.9亿农民的纯收入；
2002年，本届政府之前，政府财政收入等于2.5亿城镇居民的收入，7.6亿农民的纯收入；
1996年，新财政体系之初，为支持政府的规模，需要1.5亿城镇居民一年的可支配收，3.8亿农民的纯收入。

从这些趋势看，自1995年开始，国民收入在政府与民间之间的分配结构基本没有变形，是继续向政府手中转移，即使是在金融危机冲击之下的2008年和2009年也如此，财政税收还是以超过GDP、超过居民收入的速度增长。

Reference

陈志武:财政收入快速增长人大应多关注税收

马云(Jack Ma: 1688 CEO)语录

2010-05-01T16:27:00.005-05:00

互联网像一杯啤酒，有沫的时候最好喝
上世纪80年代挣钱靠勇气，90年代靠关系，现在必须靠知识能力
男人的胸怀是被冤枉撑大的
一个公司在两种情况下最容易犯错误，第一是有太多的钱的时候，第二是面对太多的机会，一个ＣＥＯ看到的不应该是机会，因为机会无处不在，一个ＣＥＯ更应该看到灾难，并把灾难扼杀在摇篮里。
电子商务最大的受益者应该是商人，我们该赚钱因为我们提供工具，但让我们做工具的人发了大财，而使用工具的人还糊里糊涂，这是不正常的。所谓新经济，就是传统企业利用好网络这个工具，去创造出更大的经济效益，使其成几十倍地增长，这才是真的新经济的到来。今天新旧经济是两张皮
5 elements of e-commerce

Honest/credit
eMarketplace
Search Engine
PayPal
Software to manage customers,inventory and HR info etc.

Reference

总裁马云语录，非常值得一看
刘世英等, "马云创业思维"

China moment in coal market

2010-04-30T00:08:00.000-05:00

就中国自身来说，温家宝总理表示，需要的话，今年中国将继续进口煤炭。中国媒体援引温家宝的话说：“缓解煤炭供需紧张状况……对于调节经济运行至关重要。”为了保存国内煤炭储量，中国似乎有意加大对进口的依赖。中国煤炭储量仍为全球第三大，仅次于美国和俄罗斯。

去年中国净进口煤炭1.04亿吨，与大约33亿吨的中国煤炭产量相比不算多。中国是全球最大煤炭生产国。中国转变为煤炭净进口国，与当局取缔非法和不安全煤矿有一定关系。当局此举已导致数百家小煤矿关闭。此外，由政府支持的、在产煤大省山西开展的行业整合行动，也限制了产量。

Reference

全球煤炭市场迎来“中国时刻”

China stock-index futures lauched

2010-04-18T21:06:00.002-05:00

The four main contracts on the CSI 300 Index, tracking the 300 biggest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses.

Investors need a minimum 500,000 yuan to open an account to trade index futures, according to rules by the securities regulator and the China Financial Futures Exchange.
“About 80 percent of retail investors cannot meet the requirement,” Feng said in an interview in Shanghai. “Many institutional investors, such as fund management firms, aren’t allowed to play the market for the moment.”
Investors must pay cash deposits equivalent to 15 percent of the contract value for May and June contracts and 18 percent for contracts for September and December. The contract values are points of the CSI 300 multiplied by 300 yuan and the minimum contract price movement is 0.2 point, according to the futures exchange.

Reference

China Index Futures May Tame Bubbles, Macquarie (Update1)
联合早报-财经沪深股指期货亮丽登场

Does Chinese government own the land?

2010-04-18T20:30:00.002-05:00

中华人民共和国宪法第十条:城市的土地属于国家所有。即全民所有. 全民所有不等于政府所有. 土地出让金只归政府?

理论上，所有土地如要通过开发获利，都要是国有土地。换句话说，土地本身的价值及土地开发所带来的利润，都是国有资产，全国公民人人有份，要动土，应该得到全体公民的同意，卖地所得也应该归全体公民所有，但事实正相反：卖地既不用全体公民同意，也不用土地的使用者同意，卖地的收入却落入了地方政府和开发商的腰包！[1]
国有或全民所有如果没有监管，就等于人人所有，人人没有，让地方政府和开发商可以任意处置，因此，在不改变土地所有制的前提下，作为全国人民的代表，全国人大和地方人大应该有国有资产管理委员会，代表全国公民对包括土地在内的国有资产履行监管责任。国有企业改制股权出让等尚且要接受监管，土地作为不可再生的国有资源，怎么能“逍遥法外”呢？在“国六条”实施细则中，我们看到，国务院已经要求各地政府公布土地利用开发计划，并接受社会监督，但这还不够，土地利用开发计划还应该接受人大监督，向人大汇报，同样，被征土地的补偿是否全额发放给了土地的使用者，土地出让的收入和支出，也应该接受人大的监督，如此，土地买卖才不致于成为地方政府和腐败官员的小金库。[1]
理论上，中国土地有国家和集体两种所有制，但实际上，只有一种所有制，那就是政府所有制，市域土地归了地方政府所有，农村土地归了乡镇政府所有.[1]

Reference

不好回答的问题:中国土地是谁的?

Why property tax must be levied in China?

2010-04-11T12:18:00.003-05:00

Local government can only lease the land every 70 years. No much land left to lease. Property tax must be collected. Perfect timing!!

开征物业税是分税制之后最重要的税收改革，是为了剥离地方政府与土地市场之间的关系。我国的房地产市场之所以扭曲到不可理喻的地步，根本原因是分税制之后地方政府越来越依靠土地为生，甚至把土地当成谋取部门与个人私利的摇钱树。开征物业税，使地方政府获得稳定的财政收入. 今后通过税费改革，通过增值税改成消费税等，使地方政府摆脱利益主体的恶劣形象.[1]

What's other sources of income of a local government?

Reference

叶檀,"变性的物业税来了"

Geely acquire Volv from Ford for $1.8 billion

2010-04-06T15:14:00.001-05:00

法国国际广播电台 03/30/10 ”太子党“在吉利收购沃尔沃案中斡旋渔利
中国太子党通过权力和关系赚大钱的最新例子是吉利公司沃尔沃收购案，据路透社报道：罗斯切尔德(Rothschild)银行大中华区总裁俞丽萍 (Jennifer Yu)帮助促成了该交易。

People familiar with the matter said Jennifer Yu,Rothschild's top investment banker in greater China, andLondon-based Meyrick Cox, one of the three co-heads of thebank's automotive team, helped lead the deal.
Yu is married to the adopted son of former ChinesePresident Jiang Zemin, according to a 2008 article by Frenchbusiness magazine Challenges.
She helped smooth relations with the Chinese government,whose support was vital for Geely, the people said. "She's oneof those people who tends to get whisked through security atairports -- it's very impressive," one said.

据2008年法国商业杂志《Challenges》报导，俞丽萍是中国前国家主席江泽民的干儿媳。知情人士表示，是俞丽萍帮助吉利疏通与中国政府的关系，中国政府的支持对吉利至关重要。知情人士说：“她是通过机场安检时会被人前呼後拥的那种人。这让人印象深刻。”

中国建筑平均寿命30年英美均超过70年

2010-04-05T21:32:00.001-05:00

住建部副部长仇保兴今日透露，中国是世界上每年新建建筑量最大的国家，但这些建筑只能持续25-30年。据资料显示，英国建筑的平均寿命达到132年，美国的建筑平均寿命达74年。

中国日报网4月6日报道每年中国消耗全球一半的钢铁和水泥用于建筑业，产生了巨大建筑废物，现在政府号召房地产开发企业提高建筑质量，将目前30年的建筑平均寿命延长至100年。

仇保兴，住建部副部长。他在第六届国际绿色建筑与建筑节能大会上说，我国是世界上每年新建建筑量最大的国家，每年20亿平方米新建面积，相当于消耗了全世界40%的水泥和钢材，而只能持续25-30年。

“我国建筑垃圾的数量已占到城市垃圾总量的30%～40%。据对砖混结构、全现浇结构和框架结构等建筑的施工材料损耗的粗略统计，在每万平米建筑的施工过程中，仅建筑垃圾就会产生500～600吨；而每万平方米拆除的旧建筑，将产生7000～12000吨建筑垃圾而中国每年拆毁的老建筑占建筑总量的40%。

陈宜明，住房和城乡建设部建筑节能与科技司司长。他告诉记者，政府的盲目拆迁和国内房屋自身的建筑质量问题一直是中国建筑业面临的一个难题。

That's why China' GDP is inflated. See my post on Mar 27 China's inflated GDP turn into budget deficit

Reference

中国建筑平均寿命30年英美均超过70年

联合报: 中国西南大旱前水利部长认错

2010-04-04T16:53:00.001-05:00

大陆西南地区遭遇百年大旱，湄公河下游也干旱，下游的四国指责是中国盖水坝惹祸。这期亚洲周刊专访中共前水利部部长钱正英，她表示，灾难的原因在于过去的水利工程，“粗放管理，过度开发”。
联合报 reports:

今年87岁的中共水利部前部长钱正英，早在中华人民共和国还没有成立，便从事水利工作。工作40余载的她，近年不断反思。她说，90年代起，黄河开始断流，后来塔里木河、黑河等内陆河流也出现断流。“我逐渐认识到，过去的水利工作存在着一个问题‘粗放管理，过度开发’”。

钱正英说，中国几十年来以前所未有的速度和规模开展水利建设，海河、辽河等河流的开发利用率已大于40%，超过国际公认的合理值，影响了河流的自然功能和永续利用，“我过去犯了一个错误，没有认识到需要保证河流的生态与环境需求；只研究开发水源，对保护与节约水资源的注意不够，忽略提高用水效率与效益。这个错误的源头在我”。另外该周刊也采访其他中国学者，学者表示早就对政府滥建大坝和造纸商滥植“生态杀手”桉树提出警告，但官员长期忽视，而种下祸根.

Prime mortgage crisis hit U. S.?

2010-04-01T22:02:00.000-06:00

I first heard of prime mortgage crisis in U. S. in the Chinese channel.

Peter Schiff criticized GE and GM

2010-03-29T22:23:00.000-06:00

In March 2009, breathtaking plunges in the prices of two of country's most iconic industrial companies, GE and GM, revealed dramatically how dependent those companies where on the earning of their won finance activities and how extensive the "financialization" of the American economy had become.

GE's financial activities eventually became the company's primary source of profits, overshadowing everything else. Yet, despite the transition, the company maintained its identity as an industrial bulwark. When the credit markets ground to a halt, problems initially impacting financial services naturally spread throughout the company.
GM has suffered manufacturing losses so gigantic it has filed for bankruptcy. Like the other Detroit automakers, GM has been unable to make cars profitably for a number of reasons, but its day of reckoning would have come much sooner had its financial services activities not been its real profit center. During the 1990s and 2000s GM derived the bulk of its earning not from manufacturing, but from finance, with all the leverage, financial gimmickry, and specialized accounting that went along with it. It even got heavily involved in residential mortgage financing through Ditech("Lost another loan to Ditech") and other companies.

Peter Schiff would be willing to bet that the liabilities of companies like GM and GE now exceed the value of the productive assets that used to comprise their core business. Therefore, much of the big profits were phony.

Peter Schiff 'Dollar Index would likely bottom out around 40'

2010-03-29T21:36:00.002-06:00

Peter Schiff predicted gold would go up to $5000/ounce in his book "Crash profit". He also predicted Dollar Index would drop to around 40 or even 20 in "Crash profit 2.0"

The strength of this latest dollar rally illustrate how ironic and perverse the behavior of markets can be, and it's causing a lot of people to draw some very erroneous conclusion. But don't be fooled into think its anything but temporary. The decline will resume, and where I had predicted earlier that the Dollar Index would likely bottom out at around 40, I now see a bottom closer to 20 or maybe even lower. The difference will be the vast devaluations that will result from the government's decision to stimulate the economy rather than face the pain required to restore sold fundamentals such as those that already underlie the temporarily depressed economics of our trading partners.

China's inflated GDP turn into budget deficit

2010-03-27T01:03:00.000-06:00

China's 2010 budget deficit is RMB 1.05 trillion.
budget deficit of 2009 was RMB 950 billion.
GDP in 2009 =33.5 trillion increased 8.7% than 2008.

U.S. government issued new treasury notes to raise money
Chinese government sold land to raise money

Reference

注水的GDP 终于变成了巨额的财政赤字

Dams over Mekong river and rice price

2010-03-27T00:17:00.002-06:00

现在湄公河的水位已达到50年来得最低值。然而中国外交部部长助理胡正跃近日告知泰国总理阿披实，云南省正在修建的水坝工程并非导致水位下降的原因。中国已完成小湾水电站的建设工作。按照计划，云南省内还将建设8个水电站。[1]

Mekong wiki lists 8 dams.

Several Southeast Asia countries depend on Mekong river to grow their rice.

Thailand is the world’s no.1 exporter of rice, exporting more than 6.5million tons of milled rice annually. Rice is the most important cropin the country. Thailand has the highest percentage of arable land,27.25%, of any nation in the Greater Mekong Subregion. About 55% of the arable land area is used for rice production.
Vietnam:second largest rice exporter in the world

Reference

德国之声,湄公河水量减少--中国该为此负责吗?

Southwest China drought leaves millions short of water

2010-03-25T23:03:00.006-06:00

Guizhou province has been particularly hard-hit, with 86 out of its 88cities within the drought zone and more than 17 million people short ofdrinking water, the report said.[1]

Root Cause-- Nothing to do with three-gorge dam?

Large amounts of water were also stored behind the ThreeGorges Dam last month, causing a 50% reduction in the flow volume ofthe Yangtze, China Daily said. But the Yangtze River Water Resource Commission said this was not the cause of the problem, the daily added. [3]

Solution

The government announced last week that it had initiated hundreds ofcloud-seeding operations in the region in recent months, using rocketsfired into the sky or chemicals dropped from aircraft in a bid toinduce rainfall. However, Xinhua news agency last week quoted officials saying theefforts had so far been largely unsuccessful due to a lack of moisturein the skies.[1]
Emergency wells

For parts of Yunnan, it is the worst drought in a century, with about 5.4 million people facing water shortages. Workers there are drilling daily in hopes of digging 1,035 wells bymid-May, with 52 already functioning and 288 under way, providing 20percent of the needed drinking water.[2]

Military personnel have also been deployed to the disaster areas totransport water from Zhejiang in the east to Guizhou and Yunnan,according to state broadcaster China Central Television.[2]

Reference

Commercial real estate bubble

2010-03-21T20:08:00.002-06:00

Unlike residential real estate mortgages, commercial real estate loans are generally shorter-term, between 3 and 7 years typically. This money was borrowed based on rosy rental forecasts, and as obligations become due, borrowers, faced with tight credit, higher borrowing costs, and reduced revenues, are going to be hard-pressed to roll them over. According to an Associated Press report, an estimated $36 billion of commercial real estate debt will expire in 2009 and about %55 billion of debt on average will roll over annually by 2012.

What if China refuse to buy US debt?

2010-03-21T00:05:00.004-06:00

When foreign governments bought our bonds, it was foreign money supplies that expanded, not ours. In effect we imported foreign goods and exported inflation.

Now that the Fed is buying the bond, it is our money supply that expands.
Not only are foreign investor going to be inclined to pass on U. S. debt, but I would also expect that with all the buying the Fed is doing, foreign investors would have second thoughts about continuing to hold the bonds they already own. That's why I say the real collapse is still coming.

When the temporary flurry of worldwide demand for U. S. government securities dries up and buyers change their focus from default risk to inflation risk. If Uncle Sam is printing the next trillion of stimulus money, demand for U. S. debt will implode and the only buyer left will be the Federal Reserve. See my post "inflation and Uncle Sam"

Reference

Peter Schiff, "Crash Proof 2.0"

谢国忠:2010年的股市就像一台老虎机

2010-03-20T16:00:00.001-06:00

2010,股市的表现将会象澳门赌场的老虎机,有时你能赢钱,有时你会输钱,只不过任何时候你都会很忙。

最为重要的是中国劳动力市场的变化。目前蓝领工人短缺的局面有多方面的原因:高等教育的扩张,计划生育政策的影响,农村生活水平的提高,网络游戏的吸引,吃苦耐劳意愿的下降等等。这对世界经济的意义是巨大的。中国蓝领工人的工资水平在未来三到四年内有望提高一倍。对这一点,经济学家可以做出量化分析,看看中国在全球贸易中的比重和在全球商品消费中所占的份额将会受到怎样的影响。
十年之前,美联储的专家们没有意识到中国对美国通货膨胀的影响,他们的政策过度宽松,导致了几次经济泡沫。现在他们还是不明白,不过这次等待他们的将不是泡沫,而是高通胀。问句题外话,这些人怎么还没下台呢?他们以前已经把事情搞得一团糟了。怎么会还留在原来的位置上,有机会再制造一次混乱呢?不幸的是,我们居住的这个世界就是信奉这样一条准则:无能者无罪!华尔街的恶棍被保释出狱,付钱的是无辜的纳税人。坏人出狱后依然可以拿到数以百万计的奖金,依然是有头有脸的人物。

Reference

谢国忠:2010年的股市就像一台老虎机

Peter Schiff criticizes Alan Greenspan

2010-03-20T14:43:00.004-06:00

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said, "This is a hundred-year flood that nobody could have predicted." (Hey, c'mon, Al, some of us saw you blowing up the dam.) Well, I(Peter Schiff), for one, predicted it, and the government hasn't contact me to ask how I could know what their Nobel Prize-winning economists didn't know.

Without the regulation necessary to catch the rascals who caused the trouble, how could anybody be expected to see a crisis coming?

Reference

Peter Schiff, "Crash Proof 2.0"

Collapse largely still ahead of us

2010-03-13T15:17:00.002-06:00

I strongly agree with Peter Schiff that the collapse largely still ahead of us in his book "Crash Proof 2.0"

"The collapse I was predicting when I choose my original title, Crash Proof: How to profit from the Coming Economic Collapse, hasn't happened yet. It is largely still ahead of us. The ill-fated dollar, after a bear market rally in 2008, still has a long way to fall. Inflated bond prices, the inverse result of artificially low interest rates, are a bubble still searching for a pin, with effects potentially more devastating than the real estate meltdown.

Jim Chanos: short China

2010-03-07T18:42:00.006-06:00

今年1月查诺斯接受CNBC采访时表示:“中国的房地产泡沫前所未见，中国房地产完全依靠大量资金流入支撑，中国目前有300亿平方英尺的在建商业房地产项目，平均到每个人有25平方英尺之多，已经出现了明显的由流动性引发的房地产泡沫，这个泡沫将会破灭。如果泡沫破灭，将会伤及建筑材料、大宗原材料，如铁矿石等。[1,2]

查诺斯的同事们也承认，他是从2009年夏天才开始研究中国经济，目前他在纽约和伦敦的办公室有26名员工专注研究中国经济的相关信息，并且他已经开始启动“做空中国”布局。[1]
“辨识泡沫最好的方法莫过于信贷扩张，现在没有比中国信贷泛滥更严重的国家了。”
查诺斯表示，他正在寻找其他方式，从在中国香港上市的银行、地产、建材生产商等公司，到包括铁矿石在内的大宗商品，均在其视野之内。[1]
“我觉得有趣的是一个十年前不会拼写中国单词的人现在居然变成了中国方面的专家。”吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）对他这样评价道。[1]

Reference

美国兰德公司对中国人的评价

2010-03-07T16:48:00.002-06:00

I can't this article in RAND.org

中国是一个物产丰富的国家。但无限制生育政策所带来恶果使得中国成为了无限廉价劳动力的输出国。这些输出也包括那些受过教育的劳力输出，除了他们的教育水平，实则和其他一般苦力没有本质上的区别。
中国大规模生产的便宜产品降低了输入这些产品的地区的商业信用度。由于技术落后，管理失败，中国制造的单位能耗要比发达国家如日本，美国高出很多。因此，随着出口额的增加，中国在扩大生产的同时丧失着宝贵的能源。同时，这种行为也严重的污染了环境，使中国变为全世界最不适宜人类居住的国家。
在中国人的眼中，受教育不是为了寻求真理或者改善生活质量，而只是身份和显赫地位的象征和标志。中国的知识分子从别人那里得到尊敬并不是因为他们为了别人的幸福做过什么，而只是因为他们获得占有了相当的知识。事实上，他们中的大多数只不过是一群仅仅通晓考试却从不关心真理和道德的食客。
中国可以培养出大批的高级能人才，但却很少可以培养出合格的可以独立主持的管理级专家。服务于一个公司或者社会，光有技术是不够的；还需要有勇气，胆量，正直和诚实的领导才能，这恰恰是大多数中国人所缺少的品性。正如亚瑟.史密斯，一位著名的西方传教士一个世纪前所指出的，中国人最缺乏的不是智慧，而是勇气和正直的纯正品性。这个评价，虽然历经百年，如今依旧准确诊断出中国综合症的病因

Reference

美国兰德公司对中国人的评价

Should you buy points to lower interest rate?

2010-03-04T23:15:00.002-06:00

Each discount point paid on a 30-year loan typically lowers the interest rate by 0.125 percent. [1]
points paid for residential real estate are tax deductible in the year they are paid. Buyers may deduct the amount paid even if the seller pays for the points at closing. [1] Check the IRS rules in Topic 504 – Home Mortgage Points.

Reference

Discount Points FAQ

Marc Faber Obama Makes Bush Look Like a Genius

2010-02-27T17:03:00.000-06:00

Using bankruptcy to avoid foreclosure: not that easy

2010-02-27T16:06:00.004-06:00

Many of people mistakenly believe that using bankruptcy to save their home is an automatic out. They think the hard part is getting past the stigma of bankruptcy, and the rest is easy. Wrong!

Not everyone can afford a Chapter 13 bankruptcy plan;they simply don't have the income to support the required payments. Those whose plans are approved may encounter additional financial setbacks in the form of unexpected expenses or an interruption of income, resulting in a missed payment.
Once the automatic stay is lifted, your lender can proceed with foreclosure.

Reference

David M. Peterovich, "Fight Foreclosure! How to Cope with a Mortgage You Can't Pay, Negotiate with Your Bank, and save You Home"

CMA represents the opinion of someone who wants your business

2010-02-27T15:52:00.003-06:00

A certified appraisal report is an expert's unbiased opinion.
A more biased broker's price opinion or comparative market analysis(CMA) represents the opinion of some who wants your business. These people may not be perfectly candid, in fear of losing your business to a broker who may tell you that your home is worth more than it really is.

Not only will an independent appraisal help you to set a realistic asking price, but it can also be used to dissuade bargain hunters or "tire kickers" who may try to exploit you by making a lowball offer in the hope that you do not know your home's real value.

Reference

David M. Peterovich, "Fight Foreclosure! How to Cope with a Mortgage You Can't Pay, Negotiate with Your Bank, and save You Home"

五毛党

2010-02-26T00:12:00.001-06:00

VOA 五毛党：中国制造终成笑柄
“近日甘肃省宣布组建一支650人的网评员队伍，针对网民关注的热点问题，及时发帖跟帖，正确引导社会舆论。他们被网民谑称为‘五毛党’，指的是那些为政府说话的人，发一个帖得五毛钱。”

中国著名作家韩寒1月21日的一篇博文说：“据甘肃省新闻网报导，甘肃将要组建一支650人的网络评论员队伍，正确引导舆论。......网络评论员也叫五毛党，乃是地下党。你把成立一支地下党的消息以及名单直接公布了，乃是大忌。......这个新闻直接透露了政府一直不愿意承认的一个事实，那就是五毛党的存在。如果一个人想要获得赞美和拥护必须要靠花钱收买别人的嘴才可以，那说明这个人肯定够丑的。这条新闻直接摧毁了上级部门努力营造的假象。”

Joe Stack

2010-02-25T22:39:00.009-06:00

I still can't understand why Joe Stack attached IRS. If he was an engineer in China, he would not afford the helicopter.

1987年间，我花了近五千元和至少1,000个小时，向任何一个可能听取我意见的参议员、众议员、州长或流氓写信、印刷和邮寄，没有人听我说，他们一致地将我视作是在浪费他们的时间。

我的退休金计划被重新归零.

告别加州，我来到了奥斯汀试试运气，却发现这个地方极端自以为是，很少有脚踏实地的工程师工作。我从未碰到过这么难找工作的时候，我的收入只有网络泡沫化之前的三分之一，因为这里的收费由当地三至四家大公司垄断决定，他们串通起来将价格和薪资拉低。而这之所以发生是因为司法机关受贿成风，毫不顾及服务任何人或任何事，只顾自己和其有钱的朋友。
共产主义信念：各尽所能，按需分配。资本主义信条：受骗者尽其劳，贪婪者取其利.
Andrew Joseph Stack's accountant has confirmed that Stack was in the middle of an audit for failing to report income when he crashed a plane into an IRS building in North Austin last week. [2]

Nearly 30 years ago, the IRS declared the Universal Life Church an illegal tax shelter. Stack, his wife and thousands of others had founded home churches under the same name.
Stack sued the government to defend the church's status. Court documents show that after five years in court, the Stack's were ordered to pay more than $14,000 in back taxes from 1981 to 1983. They were also forced to pay fines, penalties and interest for fraud and negligence.

Joe should consult Carl Icahn and his United Shareholder Association.

Reference

New Horizon Capital

2010-02-20T23:37:00.002-06:00

温云松是当今世界最有权势的人中国总理温家宝的儿子。正是凭藉其父的权力，温云松纔吸引到了主权基金的介入。

只要把温云松的新天域『将投资准备股票上市的大陆龙头型企业』，与温家宝亲自主管能源委员会联係起来，股民们至少知道下一拔股市的热点是什麽了----当然是新能源、低碳板块以及与能源有关的高科技啦。
目前该公司管理的资产规模达5亿美元，先前曾参与提供资金的外国企业包括孙正义旗下的日本软件银行，以及新加坡总理李显龙夫人何晶主掌的主权财富基金澹马锡。

Reference

一条财经消息震动世界政商圈：温家宝的高明大胆和直率

Hostile takeover will return value to stockholders

2010-02-20T10:01:00.004-06:00

By the early 1980s, Pickens figured it was vastly cheaper to look for oil and gas reserves on the floor of the NYSE than to explore for them in the Gulf of Mexico or some other untapped frontier.

We seek out the most vulnerable, undervalued, poorly managed big oil companies, then target one and make a major investment in that company.
We would push the management of that company to do what they have been doing in the first place: returning value to their stockholders. There was a steep discount in the value of these companies when measured against their underlying assets, in this case, oil and gas.
If management dug in and refused, we would mount a takeover attack and either force them to make changes or get control of the company and do it ourselves.

Soros still invest in gold

2010-02-17T23:24:00.002-06:00

According to a mandatory filing that Soros made before the US Securities and Exchange Commission, his Soros Fund Management holds 6.2 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest bullion exchange traded fund.

Reference

CommodityOnline, George Soros invests in gold despite bubble talk

Pickens 'Ethanol ---ugly baby'

2010-02-17T22:48:00.005-06:00

Pickens shares the same point of view on ethanol as alternative fuel with Jim Rogers: politician like it but it won't work. See my post Sugar, corn and Ethanol

If you planted a cornfield from the Mississippi River to the Pacific Ocean and took all of the corn and made ethanol out of it, that would be about 17 billion gallons, half of the alternative fuel the president says we'll need.
With all the corn that is currently planted in the U. S., ethanol supplies almost 5% of our transportation fuel.
Will ethanol work? Yes
Is it cleaner than gasoline? No
Does it have the same power as gasoline? No, only 70% of the power.
It costs a lot of money to produce ethanol, and the process has to be subsidized to make it economically feasible for the producer.
There are 21 farm states in the U. S., and they have 42 senators, and they're all together on ethanol.

Whoever convinced President Bush that ethanol is a viable alternative is one hell of a good salesman.

Jim Rogers 'gold $2000/oz'

2010-02-17T22:27:00.003-06:00

Roubini says gold at $2,000 is “utter nonsense”.
Rogers says “It’s clear Mr. Roubini hasn’t done his homework, yet again.”
Peter Schiff said gold would go up to $5000/oz.

Reference

ROUBINI VS ROGERS

Marc Faber Discusses Global Financial Markets on Bloomberg

2010-02-17T22:15:00.001-06:00

Krugman 'The Making of a Euromess'

2010-02-16T23:52:00.002-06:00

The real story behind the euromess lies not in the profligacy of politicians but in the arrogance of elites — specifically, the policy elites who pushed Europe into adopting a single currency well before the continent was ready for such an experiment.

2/10/10 Marc Faber talks Greece Bailouts on CNBC

2010-02-16T23:30:00.006-06:00

S&P 500 resist at 1150 points on the relief rally.

Oil Shale

2010-02-13T17:22:00.005-06:00

In 2006, Shell and Chevron were granted leases to extract oil from share in western Colorado.

U. S. oil shale reserves could contain 1.5 trillion barels of oil, 5 times the stated reserves of Saudi Arabia.[1]
Ute Indian legends told of warriors who saw lightning hit certain rock formations causing the “rocks to burn.” There is even a story of a Colorado rancher who built a rock fireplace in his new cabin. When the first flames heated the fireplace, the chimney, primarily composed of oil shale, caught fire and burned the entire structure to the ground. Pioneers in the western United States fueled their campfires with shale and used its oily residue to grease their wagon axles.
Shale also was used to heat peach orchards during winters in Palisade, Colorado.
In the 1850s, small amounts of shale oil were produced in the eastern United States. However, lack of technology, prohibitive processing costs, and inexpensive and reliable foreign crude oil supplies stalled efforts to produce an economical and viable fuel source from oil shale. Oil shale development further diminished when the first crude oil well was drilled in Titusville, Pennsylvania.
During World War II, the U.S. military consumed hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil. At that time, interest in developing the oil shale deposits in western Colorado was revitalized. [2]

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008
Shell Mahogany Research Project

Canadian Oil Sands

2010-02-13T00:47:00.002-06:00

Oil sands, a huge deposit of oil at or near the surface in Alberta, has long been touted as the key to meeting future demand for oil.

When oil hit $40/barrel, oil sands not only made sense, they made billions--and turned Fort Murray into a boomtown. The Alberta oil sands contain 250 billion barrels of oil, which are mined and then hauled by $7 million,two-story-high trucks that carry 400-ton payloads.
Suncor is the largest Canadian oil sand operator.
Denbury--thinking creatively and getting good results: injecting carbon dioxide into depleted oil fields to enhance production. Also owns the Jackson Dome in Mississippi, which has an estimated 13 trillion cubic feet of carbon dioxide.

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008

Coal to Liquid Fuel

2010-02-13T00:30:00.002-06:00

It's been estimated that the U. S. has more than 250 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves--equivalent to 800 billions barrels of oil.

Coal already provides more than half of American's electricity
New technology to convert coal into synthetic oil and oil products at a cost of approximately $35/barrel is becoming attractive.
The leader in the production of coal-to-liquids(CTL) is Sasol, a South African company that produces 150k barrels of CTL per day.

Pickens' three rules of energy

2010-02-13T00:16:00.002-06:00

The cost of finding oil and gas is always higher than you originally think
Oil and gas always take longer than expected to get on production
Discoveries are never as large as producers originally think.

Has Pickens talked to Jim Rogers? They shared the same idea: no more cheap oil. See my post in 09/12/2007 Jim Rogers and his oil investment

Ogallala aquifer

2010-02-12T23:28:00.003-06:00

The water was so abundant that Roberts County was the only place I'd ever been where I couldn't drill a dry hole. It was no trick getting wells that could pump up 1000 gallons a minute. The reason for this abundance? The Ogallala aquifer.

The Ogallala is one of the largest aquifers in the U. S. It is a vast reservoir and contains an estimated 3 billion acre-feet of beautiful, clean water. It's said that this aquifer could cover all of the 50 states with 14.5 inches of water. The Ogallala covers 174k square miles beneath South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kanas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and the Texas Panhandle, including my Mesa Vista Ranch.
Water is pumped out of the Ogallala daily for agriculture purposes. But the 4 counties that make up our water project are 95% ranch land. The terrain is largely rolling hills, making it unsuitable for farming. In our 4 counties, ranchers use less than 10% of the water for ranching. The rest of water is just sitting untapped and unused.
Reservoirs are seen as the solution to the state's increasing water needs. But building a new reservoir is a 30-year proposition at best.

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008

Nissan Leaf

2010-02-11T22:54:00.002-06:00

A single charge will take you and Nissan LEAF up to 100 miles.
How affordable will it be? with estimates as low as $25,000 (and as high as $30,000).

BP Capital Energy Fund

2010-02-10T22:29:00.000-06:00

BP Capital Energy Fund invested exclusively in energy futures.
Raised 37 millions from investors

John Cox: 10 million
Harold Simmons: 5 million
Fayez Sarofim: 5 million
Sherman Smith: 3 million

Strategy

Based on fundamentals
Use consulting firm: Greg Shuttlesworth at PIRA
No day traders. Salem Abraham, a very successful technical trader.

Result

Once down more than 90%. Down to trading as few as 20 contracts.

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008

Clean Energy Fuel(NASDAQ:CLNE)

2010-02-09T20:32:00.003-06:00

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Clean Energy) is a provider of natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets in the United States and Canada. The Company offers a solution to enable customers to run their fleets on natural gas. It designs, builds, finances and operates fueling stations, and supplies customers with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The 8th company Pickens have taken public.[1]
How expensive to compress and transport natural gas?
Selling points: clean, cheap and domestic
Customers: fleet operator instead of consumer automobile
U. S. Postal Service has been using alternative fuel since 1970s and CNG-powered vehicle since 1993.
Competition: how electric car affect natural-gas vehicle?
Potential: Triple its size within a few year. $120 million targeted for expansion.

Financial

Issue new shares to raise cash

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008

BP Capital Energy Equity Fund

2010-02-08T16:30:00.005-06:00

Looking for other ideas and investments, Pickens decided to launch a second fund, the BP Capital Energy Equity Fund, in 2001.

Take advantage of analysis on the oil and gas commodities and apply it to stock market, specializing in energy and energy-dependent stocks.
Support from Ace Greenberg, chairman of Bear Sterns.
Raised 84 million from investors.

Fayez Sarofim

Harold Simmons

John Cox

Strategy

Hedge fund: 10% futures and 90% energy stocks
No attempts at takeovers and no 13D positions
Michael Ross "three-way" strategy(buy vertical spread+ sell naked put) with very little initial capital

Buy natural gas to expire in 2003, 2004 and 2005, putting on what we call the "4-5-3":

Buy a $4 call,
Sell a $5 call,
Sell a $3 put.

Gas was at $3.5. We felt that for three years ahead, natural gas price would exceed $4 but wouldn't go lower than $3.
This "three-way" was a zero cost, but we had to make margin calls if it moved against us.
Michael was scanning weather reports throughout the day and night, paying particular attention to pressure gradients, water vapor maps, actual reading taken from planes, and on and on.

Reference

Pickens, T. Boone, The First Billion is the Hardest: Reflections on a life of Comebacks and America's Energy Future, 2008

Why Texas Panhandle is ideal for wind farm?

2010-02-07T01:49:00.004-06:00

The wind blows almost all the time in the Texas Panhandle.

The wind in the Texas Panhandle is rated class 4. With an average wind speed of 16.8 miles/hour at a height of 164 feet, it is ideal for power generation.
There are several other advantages to developing wind energy, including proximity to load, ease of access, and flat terrain for construction.
Add these to the area's great expanses of land and its motivated landowners, and there couldn't be a better place to erect a major wind farm.
None are going to be placed on my ranch. They are just like oil wells but with no pollution and no decline curve.

Reference

T. Boone Pickens, The first billion is the hardest

What if United Shareholders Association not shutdown?

2010-02-06T00:44:00.003-06:00

In the summer of 1986, Mr. Pickens launched the United Shareholders Association(USA), a national lobbying group dedicated to giving American shareholders a platform and a voice.

Owners and shareholders were unorganized, intimidated, and treated like 2nd-class citizens even though they were putting up the money to finance corporate America.
Supporter

Billionaire financier Carl Icahn
Cincinnati businessman Carl Lindner
Dallas financier Harold Simmons

Business Round-table collected almost $10 million to come after Mr. Pickens: dig up dirt and spread it out.

Wall Street used to same strategy on former New York governor Spitzer. See my post on Mar 15, 2008

USA was shutdown after some achievements. Should USA be there, the fat-cats on Wall Street would haven't got that big bonus that easy. US investors needs more Pickens today!

Reference

T. Boone Pickens, The first billion is the hardest

BRK-B split 50:1

2010-01-22T23:28:00.002-06:00

Buffett BRK-B shares. I wonder if this is because he raised money in order to acquire BNI.

Real estate industry is backbone of U. S. GNP

2010-01-13T23:29:00.004-06:00

In term of economics, real estate is the backbone of this country.

The industry alone accounts for 20% of gross national product, employs 8 million workers, and generates $200 billion in tax revenues.
Construction not only creates jobs, is spurs manufacturing. If people buy houses, they carpets, furniture, and so on.
Fewer houses were under construction in 1993 than in 1946.

Reference

Donald J. Trump with Kate Bohner, Trump the art of the comeback

Trump: tax law in 1986 caused depression of 1990-1993

2010-01-12T23:21:00.004-06:00

I got nervous when Washington passed a ludicrous tax law in 1986--it ended up being a disaster for both real estate and banking and caused the depression of 1990-1993.

It was 1986, the peak of the real estate market's boom. Some pundits in Washington, D. C. , decided it was time to rein in a few overzealous developers, who, the pols claimed, were unfairlly taking advantage of tax breaks and favorable depreciation schedules.
The 1981 tax code was revised, and the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1986(TEFRA) was passed, destroying just about any incentive anyone might have for investing in real estate.

TEFRA eviscerate the tax shelters--in place to encourage investment--thereby leaving investors virtually no incentive to put their money into any type of development--including low- and moderate-income housing.
The upper-income tax rate was lowered from 51% to 32%. Investing involves risk.

Reference

Donald J. Trump with Kate Bohner, Trump the art of the comeback

Bill Gross Sees 2010 as Year of Reckoning

2010-01-08T22:59:00.002-06:00

John Curran has a Q&A: Pimco's Bill Gross Sees 2010 as Year of Reckoning

The economy should be relatively strong in the first half of 2010, then weaken in the second half.
So it's a trillion-and-a-half-dollar check that won't be there as the Fed withdraws from the market. How that affects the markets, I just don't know. I'm not eagerly anticipating the answer, but I think it holds some surprises in 2010 — not just in mortgage securities but stocks as well.

Information Asymmetry

2010-01-05T00:11:00.000-06:00

This inequality between consumers and companies in terms of access of key data has been dubbed "information asymmetry" by Joseph Stiglitz, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his theory of how information shapes the operation of markets.

Stiglitz sees any data gap between buyers and seller as a major market flaw: ignorance cripples market efficiency, while sound data lets buyers make smart choices.

Reference

Daniel Goleman, Ecological Intelligence

Dynasty Electric Vehicle Ltd

2010-01-03T15:49:00.003-06:00

Dynasty Electric Vehicle Limited designs, manufactures and markets zero emission, electric Low Speed Vehicles (LSV's) for urban, recreational and light commercial markets such as planned and gated communities, destination resorts, industrial complexes and universities.

LSV's have a maximum allowable speed of 25 mph (40 kph).

Zenn Motors

2010-01-03T15:44:00.002-06:00

Business

"Neighborhood Electric vehicle" for short trips
Base price between $12,750 and $14,700
Range between charging limited to 35 miles

WrightSpeed

2010-01-03T15:21:00.004-06:00

X-1 electric prototype

Ariel Atom sports car heavily modified to use an all-electric powertrain.[2]
Acceleration capability of 0 to 60 miles/hour in about 3 seconds[1]
170mpg equivalent in city driving

It uses approximately 200 WHr/mile in city driving. The energy content of a gallon of gasoline is 33,705 WHrs. If you divide 33,705 by 200, you get the equivalent of 169 mpg.

Management

Built by San Francisco-based New Zealand engineer Ian Wright.

Mr. Wright was an early employee of electric-car company Tesla Motors, but soon left to pursue his own ideas.

Reference

Property tax in China?

2010-01-02T23:52:00.006-06:00

I'm surprised to know China would collect property tax in order to control the overheat of the house price. One reason is to conform international rule.

This is too unfair for rank-and-file becuase Buying a condo in China is like Buy a mobile home in US.
This is a wrong way because the root cause of problem is that government charge too much land lease fee and there are no enough investment alternatives in China.

See my post Why house in China is so expensive?
Chinese people should be allowed the purchase oversea stock, bonds, commodities etc.
It is better way to control the house price for the government officials to disclose their real income in their names.[1]

Reference

一虎一席谈2010年01月23日A:物业锐该不该尽快开征？">一虎一席谈2010年01月23日A:物业锐该不该尽快开征？

Three generally recognized home pricing methods

2010-01-02T22:37:00.004-06:00

Base property values on the income that can be produced. Most appropriate for commercial real estate and for use by investors.

See my post A striking degree of commonality in the quantitative methods

Look at replacement values. If a property burned to the ground tomorrow, how much will it cost to replace all the wood, bricks, lumber, plumbing, electrical, and other building components? What about labor, permits, design costs, etc. ? This type of analysis is complex and typically used to value unique structure such as schools, churches, synagogues, and town halls.
The pricing system offering the most promise for first-time buyers is the market data approach, which simply compares recent sales among similar home in the same area.

Reference

Peter G. Miller, Buy your First Home Now, 1990

郎咸平：中国大陆公务员是世界上最无耻的群体

2009-12-31T16:08:00.002-06:00

10年间，通过土地财政和垄断政治权力，官方组织一步步通过各种手段将社会财富向自己手中集中。不仅以重税和重复收费罚款的方式，从横向上苛刻聚敛社会财富，而且以资源浪费和环境污染等方式，从纵向上大肆透支谋夺子孙后代赖以生存的根基。官有经济在垄断的无竞争市场所向披靡，源源不断的暴利如滚滚长江。水气电油电信金融烟草卫生教育海关公路等行业自不用说，即使出版、邮政、新华书店、市政、环卫、公交、盐业、矿业、铁路、民航、文化、体育、新闻、旅游、土地等这些领域，因为禁止自由竞争，其利润之丰厚仍足以使任何外企眼红得流鼻血。
黑领阶层之所以生活水平急剧提高，是因为其垄断了包括政治、法律、经济、信息在内的一切社会资源，他们消耗了至少一半以上的中国国民收入。
黑领的特殊之处是已经走向组织化和正在走向世袭化，前者巩固，后者继承。
在这场席卷地球的金融风暴中，无数外企破产倒闭、业绩滑坡，覆巢之下，纷纷裁员降薪，白领们仓皇失业。与此相反，中国官有组织却财大气粗逆市飘红，令世界500强为之羡慕，黑领们仍然可以毫无罪恶感的集体加薪。
白领没有任何社会权利，没有罢工权，没有选举权，没有话语权；他们没有权势，没有资本，没有门第。相反，黑领则是这个国家的上帝选民。
因为对立法权和司法权的把持，黑领群体成为名义上和实质上的共和国公民，他们普遍享受到一个共和国公民所应当享受的一切政治权利。

Reference

郎咸平：中国大陆公务员是世界上最无耻的群体

Renewalbe Energy research/consulting firm

2009-12-28T21:11:00.001-06:00

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. It develop new business with technology vendors, utilities, government agencies, industry associations, and the investor community.

Solar to Go

2009-12-27T13:58:00.008-06:00

With electronic gear increasingly integrated in our lives, electrical cords have become our lifeline.
Mobile solar panels in a variety of formats are being developped and marketted to provide power for laptops, iPod, cell phones and other electronic devices.

Solar laptop charger from Sierra Solar Systems

Integrating solar power into electroincs is one business opportunity.

The iSun is an iPod charger. Solio(Berkeley, CA) makes a popular cell-phone charger.
Powerfilm of Ames, Iowa, already makes the R15-600 9W, 12V solar charger using a thin film technology. As a thin film, this charger is flexible and can be rolled up to make it easier to carry.

Thin films still are expensive for your roof, but for niche electronics applications, the cost of of the panel is less of a factor.

Motorola has what it calls the first certified carbon-free phone.

Reference

Environmental Accountant

2009-12-23T23:45:00.005-06:00

We have taken natural system for granted and now are threaten by these changes.

When economists tally up the value of services provided by nature, they find them to be worth trillions of dollars--probably more than all human economic activity. [2]
To produce a sustainable economy, business need a new accounting method that measures the value of nature and natural capital in business transactions and performance.

Changing course to produce a sustainable economy requires the "Second industrial revolution" as Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins described in Natural Capitalism.
The System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting is used by many countries to track how natural resources and used, how wastes are disposed of, and the net impact on the environment, in addition to more traditional measures of economic performance.

An environmental accountant who reduces company's carbon footprint but eliminates its financial profit will not be employed for long.

Reference

Glenn Croston, 75 Green Businesses
Costanza et al, The value of the World's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital, Nature May 1997

Tesla Motors

2009-12-18T21:35:00.003-06:00

Business

Roadster: $100k

Faster Accelerating than a Jugar, yet all-electric and green

Model S almost $50k

Investors

Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page as indivual investors
Daimler AG

U.S. smart grid market poised to double by 2014

2009-12-17T00:00:00.008-06:00

Global smart grid market will go from $69.3 billion in 2009 to $171.4 billion in 2014.

Reference

U.S. smart grid market poised to double by 2014

Federal Express

2009-12-16T22:56:00.001-06:00

In 1990, Fred Smith was the most successful airline entrepreneur of the day. Back in 1976, he had started an airline with its own fleet of planes and pilots--yet it didn't fly people!

Tips in buying a new car

2009-12-15T06:46:00.011-06:00

Target Price=(MSRP - rebate or Sale price - Low ball offer)/2 + low ball offer

Invoice price

Volume Purchase Discount is not shown.

sticker
Holdback(similar to deposit)
incentives and rebates are programs offered by the manufacturers to stimulate sales.

Edmunds True Market Value

It's a guide that provides you updated weekly pricing on what you should pay for a vehicle — without having to spend hours negotiating with a dealer.
没有标明数据统计历史，所以，这个值只是一个均值，却没有趋势信息。[1]

Emotion in trading

While salesmen play people games with the customer, the guys in the tower work the numbers with computers, their eyes fixed on the bottom line. They can see at a glance what kind of profit they are taking from the customer and they do it any way. Furthermore, they bully the sales staff, encouraging them to manipulate, control and intimidate customers while they take the lion's share of the profit.[4]
By itself profit is a positive word. But in the car business, the dealership's profit is the consumer's loss.[4]
Car salespeople know that if you leave the car lot to "think it over" you might decide not to buy their car. So they pressure you to "buy today."[4]

Reference

Paul Pilzer and his "The Next Millionaires"

2009-12-11T23:35:00.006-06:00

A friend recommended me this book this Wed. Today I finished the first 3 chapter. I wondered if some arguments in the books made sense at all.

The amount of wealth we can create is limited only by how many people we're willing to trade with. (pp. 17).

Also limited by possibility curve, natural resources etc.

6 laws of economic alchemy

Resources are unlimited becuae our minds are unlimited.
Technology determintes the supply of any give resource.
The advance of technology is determinted by the exchange of information
Technology determines need.
There is no limit to our economy because there is no limit to demand
Your immediate economic potential is defined by your technology gap.

Sounds like persuading you to direct sell.

The rise of the distribution millionaires

The cost of manufacturing represented only about 20% of the typical retail item's pirce, with the other 80% being distribution costs!
Entrepreneurs like amzaon.com founder Jeff Bezos and eBay founder Pierre Omidyar are poised to surpass the physical distribution billionaires of yesterday. They are not cast from the same mold as Wal-Mart and Costco.
The #1 business opportunity for those who want to create new wealth is educating consumers about products and services that will improve their lives.
The greatest opportunities today are to give into business for yourself as an entrepreneur.
Today, the real risk is staying with a large organization, because your job will be probably permanently dismantled iwth a few years.
Direct selling is the perfect intellectual distribution business for today's economy.

Direct Selling Association

Reference

Paul Zane Pilzer homepage

Screening + Strategies => Profit

郑拓李旭利老鼠仓案

股市“黑嘴”汪建中

股权分置

郭现杰《私募》

Cloud computing center in China --- Just waste taxpayers' money

Wall Street never sleeps movie

FDA chemist Chen Yi Liang charged for insider trading

Buffett: Japan a ‘buying opportunity,’ will recover

Sales of luxe doomsday bunkers up 1,000%

Oil reserves in Libya

The economic impact of Japanese earthquake and tsunami

3月3日外交部发言人姜瑜"不要拿法律当挡箭牌"

China's jasmine revolution

“皮革奶”

U. S. Prosperity today built on Indians losing their land?

燕京啤酒 000729

贵州茅台(600519)

陈志武: 让百姓分享经济增长带来的财富效应

假按揭

章立凡:清末以来中国三次“国进民退”的历史教训

Enery shortage and Defense stock

Stephen Leeb

Intel wants to buy into smart phone chip market

Revenue of China state-owned enterprise and GDP

Gordon Chang(章家墩) and his book "The coming collapse of China"

Why farmer are second-class citizen in China?

classification of company

Rollover will always lose money when futures contract is in backwardation

Two more cards in the hands of Chinese government

Money market instruments with short-term maturities

茅于轼

Startup's 5 stages to raise money

刘植荣《世界工资研究》

蔡崇信 1688 CFO

陈志武:财政收入快速增长 人大应多关注税收

马云(Jack Ma: 1688 CEO)语录

China moment in coal market

China stock-index futures lauched

Does Chinese government own the land?

Why property tax must be levied in China?

Geely acquire Volv from Ford for $1.8 billion

中国建筑平均寿命30年 英美均超过70年

联合报: 中国西南大旱 前水利部长认错

Prime mortgage crisis hit U. S.?

Peter Schiff criticized GE and GM

Peter Schiff 'Dollar Index would likely bottom out around 40'

China's inflated GDP turn into budget deficit

Dams over Mekong river and rice price

Southwest China drought leaves millions short of water

Commercial real estate bubble

What if China refuse to buy US debt?

谢国忠:2010年的股市就像一台老虎机

Peter Schiff criticizes Alan Greenspan

Collapse largely still ahead of us

Jim Chanos: short China

美国兰德公司对中国人的评价

Should you buy points to lower interest rate?

Marc Faber Obama Makes Bush Look Like a Genius

Using bankruptcy to avoid foreclosure: not that easy

CMA represents the opinion of someone who wants your business

五毛党

Joe Stack

New Horizon Capital

Hostile takeover will return value to stockholders

Soros still invest in gold

Pickens 'Ethanol ---ugly baby'

Jim Rogers 'gold $2000/oz'

Marc Faber Discusses Global Financial Markets on Bloomberg

Krugman 'The Making of a Euromess'

2/10/10 Marc Faber talks Greece Bailouts on CNBC

Oil Shale

Canadian Oil Sands

Coal to Liquid Fuel

Pickens' three rules of energy

Ogallala aquifer

Nissan Leaf

BP Capital Energy Fund

Clean Energy Fuel(NASDAQ:CLNE)

BP Capital Energy Equity Fund

陈志武:财政收入快速增长人大应多关注税收

中国建筑平均寿命30年英美均超过70年

联合报: 中国西南大旱前水利部长认错